UK consumer price growth probably held steady in February, but rising energy bills could soon push expenses upward.

Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics and Deutsche Bank believe the Consumer Prices Index remained at three per cent that month.

Yet Oxford Economics researchers caution that mounting energy costs, fueled by instability in the Middle East, might push inflation above four per cent during the second half of 2026.

According to Edward Allenby, senior economist at Oxford Economics, based on their revised projections, they now foresee a considerably steeper climb in fuel costs, while elevated wholesale gas prices result in a 19 per cent rise to the Ofgem price ceiling in July.

The bank predicts CPI inflation will exceed four per cent in the latter half of 2026.

Allenby forecasts CPI inflation actually fell to 2.8 per cent in February, helped by lower petrol prices and moderating services inflation.

However, he warned this could rapidly change if energy bills continue rising.

Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, remarked that they anticipate the UK’s disinflation trajectory will experience another turning point on its eventual descent toward the target.

The Bank of England recently warned that high wholesale energy prices could delay Britain’s return to target inflation.

The central bank now expects inflation to sit near three per cent in Q2 2026, against an earlier forecast of 2.1 per cent.