The US midterm elections could have a direct effect on Oxford students through consumer prices and travel costs.
Diesel has risen beyond £2 per litre this month, while British grocery inflation increased from 2.3% to 2.5%.
One frequently cited factor behind rising inflation is the continuing confrontation between Iran and the United States in the Middle East.
The Trump administration has also warned of a 100% tariff on UK goods unless the country removes its digital services tax.
US government decisions can influence international economic conditions, and the president’s party currently has narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress.
The forthcoming elections could therefore affect whether existing policy is sustained or altered.
Although midterms formally concern seats for representatives and senators, they are often interpreted as an indication of public confidence in the president.
Historically, such elections have tended to register reduced support for the administration, particularly in the House.
Since 1946, the president’s own party has added seats in only two midterm contests, those of 1998 and 2002.
The first occurred when President Clinton was impeached, while the second followed the attacks of 9/11.
Congress comprises two elected chambers.
Elections for every member of the House take place every two years, with representatives serving two-year terms.
This electoral cycle also contains the presidential contest and the midterm elections that fall between presidential polls.
The Republican Party presently holds a narrow House majority, meaning the Democratic Party requires a net gain of three seats to take control.
Senators serve six-year terms, and the Senate contains 100 members divided into three classes of roughly 33 each.
Its electoral timetable is staggered, with one-third of the chamber facing election every two years.
Republicans also hold a majority in the Senate, where Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to secure control.
The structure of Congress gives it substantial authority to limit presidential power.
Legislative powers cover areas including public spending, defence, foreign affairs and trade.
Democratic control of either or both chambers could lead to efforts to obstruct President Trump’s agenda.
The consequences would be relevant to British and international students because American policy can contribute to higher food costs.
Rising petrol prices also affect travel, with air fares for journeys home after term likely to face additional pressure.
Congress has several potential routes for influencing the conflict with Iran.
Under the War Powers Resolution, it could direct the president to begin withdrawing American forces within 60 days.
The measure would probably face a presidential veto and therefore require a supermajority in Congress.
Other congressional mechanisms could also impede military action.
Members could restrict defence spending, reject nominees or decline to approve them, conduct hearings and require Department of Defense officials to give evidence.
When the Senate withholds confirmation, the president has fewer candidates available for appointment.
An official then serving in an acting capacity generally has less political influence.
Taken together, such measures could increase pressure to end the conflict, which has contributed to an average rise of 16–30% in UK petrol prices and a 20% increase in airline jet fuel worldwide.
Congress also has options for dealing with tariffs.
Legislative action could cancel particular tariffs or remove broader presidential authority to impose them.
Most of the methods available over the Iran conflict are equally relevant to trade policy.
If Democrats gained control of both chambers, legislation restricting the president’s tariff powers would have a reasonable prospect of overriding a veto.
The congressional power over expenditure provides another means of applying pressure.
In 2019, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi prevented appropriations from advancing because of disagreement over funding for a wall along the US–Mexico border.
The resulting government shutdown disrupted or slowed public services, including airport operations, small-business loans, court proceedings and heavily visited national parks.
Such disputes traditionally place substantial pressure on the party perceived as unwilling to compromise.
President Trump was the president placed in that position in 2019.
These congressional powers place the 10% tariff on UK goods at risk while reducing the likelihood of further tariff threats.
An election held thousands of miles from Oxford may therefore influence what students pay for food and local transport, as well as the price of flights home at the end of term.
Wider changes to the global economy could also shape the employment market that Oxford graduates intend to enter.